POLITICIANS are always quick to discount polls. I've lost count of the amount of times I've heard them trot out the phrase:"The only one which matters is the one on election day."
But don't be fooled, political parties are slaves to statistics, and aren't afraid to divert campaign resources accordingly. Afterall, when is the last time you saw a sitting Prime Minister visit a constituency in the middle of an election campaign where their party is ranked third and has never had a sniff of victory there?
Local elections are a bit different as the only figures we have to go on are, indeed, the ones from previous election results.
This year's seats were last contested for in 2003, with the exception of Newburgh Ward which is being re-run 12 months on because of a boundary change.
You could argue the figures are a little out of date but on the other hand it's the closest we'll get to any kind of projections. Besides, MORI doesn't tend to take a great deal of interest in West Lancs for some reason...
So, based on those stats, there's four marginals (and one semi-marginal) on which all eyes will be focused.
If Labour has any hope of wrestling back control of West Lancashire from the Conservatives, they must hold both Scott and Wrightington wards which, just so happens, are both the first and second least safe seats respectively.
After that, they will not only have to take Derby and North Meols from the Tories, but produce a corker by going into the True Blue heartlands of Aughton, Scarisbrick and Knowsley wards and overturning majorities of 300-plus. Either that or they're relying on other parties/candidates to cause an upset.
That is the enormity of the task facing Labour if they want to take control this year.
The Conservatives have much more room for manoeuvre. Even if they lost Bickerstaffe, Derby, North Meols and failed to recapture Scott and Wrightington, they'd still have an overall majority of seven. What it would do, though, is set up a nailbiter for next year.
The Tories have, over the past five years since seizing power, built up a very strong position for themselves which would be, dare I say it, impossible to break down at just one election. There would have to be a complete collapse in the Tory vote for this to happen.
However, if Labour take the top four target seats then they will consider it a good day at the office. They know that in order to win back power, they're going to have to play the waiting game with them setting their sights on a return to the political big time in 2008 or 2010.
Seats in order of vulnerability
1) Scott - Labour majority of 8
2) Wrightington - Labour majority of 20
3) Bickerstaffe - Conservative majority of 55
4) Derby - Conservative majority of 77
5) North Meols - Conservative majority of 100
6) Up Holland - Labour majority of 153
7) Ashurst - Labour majority of 215
8) Tanhouse - Labour majority of 254
9) Skelmersdale North - Labour majority of 255
10) Birch Green - Labour majority of 264
11) Tarleton - Conservative majority of 299
12) Knowsley - Conservative majority of 315
13) Aughton & Downholland - Conservative majority of 336
14) Digmoor - Labour majority of 340
15) Scarisbrick - Conservative majority of 342
16) Parbold - Conservative majority of 408
17) Newburgh - Conservative majority of 457
18) Aughton Park - Conservative majority of 490
19) Skelmersdale South - Labour majority of 551
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